Pablo Eduardo Carrillo Fernandez is an agricultural and commodities executive whose career spans livestock genetics, equipment trading, and international commodity markets. As CEO of Centro Genetico Toromacho in Venezuela, he oversees a renowned livestock breeding operation that has implemented advanced genetic technologies under his leadership. He is also the founder and CEO of ONCA Equipment, LLC, a Miami-based trading company specializing in agricultural and mining equipment, as well as commodity trading across Latin America. Under the guidance of Pablo Eduardo Carrillo Fernandez, ONCA has grown rapidly, achieving strong revenues and expanding its trading activity, particularly in soybean oil and grain markets. His deep experience navigating fluctuating supply chains, global trade policies, and market volatility positions him well to contextualize the complexities of today’s soybean oil markets and the broader forces driving commodity price instability.
Soybean Oil Markets – Navigating Volatile Global Commodities
Responsible for a significant portion of global protein consumption, Soybeans stand as the most traded agricultural commodity worldwide and are the fourth-most traded of any commodity. Its competitors, such as wheat, corn, and palm oil, are not substitutable, as they lack quality proteins (or, in the case of palm oil, any at all).
Beyond providing the second most used cooking oil (after palm oil) worldwide, soybeans are integral to food items such as soy sauce, miso, and tofu. The protein-dense legumes contain all the essential amino acids humans and livestock require as part of a balanced diet, and are also sought after as a ready source of biodiesel in countries such as Brazil.
The production of soybeans remains highly concentrated, with the United States, Brazil, and Argentina making up 90 percent of the total exported product. In 2023 alone, the value of exported soybeans exceeded $19 billion, with the total value of the industry exceeding $155 million. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around six percent particularly reflects rising demand in nations such as China.
The economic impact of soybeans extends to cultivation and employment, with soybean production across South America having risen by a factor of three since the 1960s and 240,000 farms cultivating the legume in Brazil alone. The United States has around 280,000 farmers engaged in growing soybeans.
As explored in a 2024 article (Heliyon, Volume 10, Issue 15), soybeans are also a volatile commodity that has been affected by external events such as the Ukraine and Russia conflict, which steadily pushed prices up. Examining the 2010 to 2023 timeframe, the researchers found that supply chain disruptions often led to agricultural and energy sector price increases, with soybeans no exception. Both Russia and Ukraine are top 10 producers of soybeans, and they also produce many intermediaries, such as fertilizers, in today’s interconnected markets.
Since 2023, a major factor placing soybeans in the valuation crosshairs has been proposed tariffs between the United States and China. This soybean price volatility has cross-commodity implications spanning livestock and grains such as corn and wheat. In early 2025, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean and corn prices both fell sharply as China held back on purchases of US agricultural commodities as a way of countering tariffs placed on largely manufactured Chinese goods.
With land-use competition and shared production inputs a factors, this affected the balance between US soybean and corn plantings, and the respective prices of these commodities. In addition, US livestock markets have a heavy reliance on soybean meal as a pig and cattle feedstock. From January to April 2025, as tariffs took effect, China cut back on US imports of pork and beef by 16 to 68 percent, even as it diversified sourcing and placed a 13 percent tariff on US soybeans. With less animal feed related to beef and pork exports, farmers were hit hard on multiple fronts.
In November 2025, the US administration reached a truce with China, which made a commitment to bring soybean purchases up to 12 million tons by the end of the year, and to purchase 25 million tons of soybeans annually from the US from 2026 to 2028. However, the 13 percent tariffs placed on US soybeans lingered, as well as the effects of a $10 billion shift from US to Brazilian soybeans. This added levels of complexity, as investors sought the safest and most lucrative soybean futures to funnel funds into. Naturally, what impacts one agricultural market can benefit another, and farmers in many South American countries see opportunity in increasing soybean output.
About Pablo Eduardo Carrillo Fernandez
Pablo Eduardo Carrillo Fernandez is the CEO of Centro Genetico Toromacho in Venezuela and founder of ONCA Equipment, LLC, in Miami. With experience spanning livestock genetics, international trade, and commodity markets, he has guided ONCA to significant growth in agricultural and soybean-related trading. A former president of ASOSENEPOL Venezuela, he has strengthened national livestock initiatives while expanding business operations across Latin America.
